Most of my friends believe they are profitable sports bettors. They all have their infallible system. They know I don’t bet on sports. They know I have a masters in statistics and that I’ve worked in sports analytics.
Why don’t I bet? If anyone could beat the market, it would be a stats nerd who loves sports. I’ll let Nate Silver do the talking.
I bet a total of $1,809,006. And I finished the year ahead by a whopping $5,242-for a paltry ROI of 0.3 percent.
Nate Silver – On the Edge
“Still, one frustrating thing I discovered is that, even after having made bets on roughly 1,250 games and keeping track of lots of information associated with each bet, there wasn’t a large enough sample size to provide for many statistically significant conclusions. If winning 55 percent of your bets makes you a huge winner and 50 percent makes you a fish, even a full season’s worth of bets won’t necessarily tell you which category you belong in.”
“This is what economists call “adverse selection”-if you’re being offered to buy a bet at a price that seems too good to be true, you have to ask why the sportsbook is willing to sell it to you.”
“Sports betting took more mental bandwidth than I expected, even when I wasn’t “on the clock.” On average, I spent an hour to an hour and a half per day looking at betting lines and placing bets-on top of the considerable time I was already devoting to following the NBA. But that understates the degree to which sports betting can be preoccupying. Checking betting lines was often the first thing I did when I woke up and the last thing I did before going to bed. Meanwhile, my sports-betting habit and my Twitter habit fed off each other, since I was constantly looking for nuggets of new information. And then there’s sweating your bets; there are NBA games continuously from seven p.m. to one a.m. almost every day-I was undoubtedly a worse guy to hang out with when there was a game on in the background.”
Look, if Nate Silver can’t beat the market with his advanced proprietary statistical models, expert knowledge of the game, and insider information, then I’m doomed. Even if I could, it doesn’t look like a good investment of my time. I’d rather invest this energy and focus in my career and relationships.
It’s fine to bet small amounts of money on sports to provide entertainment value. Still, there’s a significant risk of addiction and most people could better spend their money elsewhere. People tend to bet too much and not properly manage their bankroll. It’s theoretically possible to only take advantage of the aggressive promotional offers from betting apps. They often give you free betting money or boost your odds. That said, I’ve yet to meet someone who strictly adheres to this regimen. Moreover, my energy would be better spent elsewhere. I don’t assume I’ll be different from everyone else.
Know thyself.
Socrates
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